CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-23T17:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28730/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in all coronagraphs. Source is very likely an M4.3 class flare from AR 3561 (S17W39) which peaked at 2024-01-23T16:40Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as opening field lines and a small dimming region in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and some filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304. Potential CME arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 12nT at 2024-01-28T09:34Z and by rotation of two magnetic field components. Closer to 10Z there is rotation of all three magnetic field components and a drop in density. However, this arrival signature is also characterised by a slow increase in solar wind speed from ~350 km/s to just under 490 km/s around 2024-01-29T03Z, accompanied by minor increase in temperature, possibly indicating an admixture of a brief coronal hole high speed stream. Alternative CME candidate could be 2024-01-24T01:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T09:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -191
Predicted Dst min. time: 2024-01-26T17:00Z
Prediction Method: Anemomilos
Prediction Method Note:
Notice = ADVISORY, Issued = 2024-01-25_17:00, Mins_Elaps = 29, PredictStart = 2024-01-26_09:00, PredictPeak = 2024-01-26_17:00, EL = 60, GX = G3, DST = -191, Pr = 3, Sr = NN, Velocity = 750, streamB_status = ME, issue_time_tag = 2024-01-25_17:29, CID = C040Lead Time: 81.58 hour(s)
Difference: 42.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) on 2024-01-24T18:07Z
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